Are there better trend operation methods or indicators?

2024-04-19

There are primarily two modes for trend trading:

One is not to screen the market at all, but to follow the trend entirely with indicators. Orders are not closed, holding long positions, when the trend turns bearish, close the long and go short; holding short positions, when the trend turns bullish, close the short and go long. The most representative is the trading logic described in the "Turtle Trading Rules."

The other is to screen multiple markets using technical indicators. When the market reaches a certain structure or pattern, and there is a possibility of a trend emerging, then enter the market to catch the trend. This trading mode is more common, such as trading with a larger perspective while focusing on smaller details, trading using Elliott Wave Theory, and trading based on pattern breaks, etc., all follow this logic.

I recommend the second mode more.

The first mode is extremely simple, observing the market is easy, the technical criteria used are simple, and finding trading signals is also easy, just follow the signals and trade mindlessly.

However, things that seem simple often have very high demands on people, and this mode is very difficult to execute. Because it does not screen signals during trading, in a volatile market, it will encounter multiple consecutive losses. Once there are too many losses, it will be very frustrating, and once the mind is disturbed, execution will be problematic, leading to losses. The "Turtle Trading Rules" have mentioned similar cases.

Advertisement

The second mode, although the process of technical criteria is more complex than the first mode, its signals are screened. Even if it encounters volatility, there won't be too many stop-loss opportunities, and the mentality is more stable. In the trading industry, we all know that those with a stable mentality rule the world. A stable mentality can ensure execution, and it is easier to make money.

So, in order to make money, we should not be afraid of trouble, nor be lazy. Choosing the second mode is better.

Next, I will continue to talk about two good trend trading methods.

Method 1: Use moving averages to filter out volatile markets and then proceed with trend trading.In the previous discussion, we mentioned that trend trading's biggest fear is consecutive stop losses in a consolidating market, and the market is always switching back and forth between consolidation and trend. You can never prevent the arrival of consolidation. So, we can opt to trade at times when the market has experienced consolidation and is more likely to trend.

For instance, when the moving average indicators frequently cross over each other, forming a converging pattern between high and low points, this is a classic consolidating market. After identifying such a market on the chart, we can patiently wait for the market to break out and then follow the trend to enter.

The chart below is a 1-hour candlestick chart of spot gold.

At the top of the chart, the two moving averages are almost flat, crossing back and forth frequently in a very short period. Additionally, the range of the market's consolidation is very narrow, compressing momentum. After the market breaks the low point, we enter, and then the market moves downward in a significant bearish trend.

In this operation mode, it is important to note that the moving averages should cross frequently in a short period, indicating that the market has no direction. The consolidation range must be small to concentrate momentum, and only after breaking through can there be significant space.

Method 2: Choose a one-sided market that has moved significantly and trade the reversal trend after testing a significant support.

When the market moves significantly in one direction and tests an important support, the probability of a trend reversal is high. At this time, we look for opportunities to trade in the opposite direction of the trend, which increases the likelihood of successful trades. Moreover, the entry position is advantageous, and the risk-reward ratio of the trade is also favorable.

The chart below is a candlestick chart of the British Pound to the US Dollar, with the left side being the daily chart and the right side being the hourly chart.

On the left side of the chart, the market fell significantly from a high of around 1.24500 to a low of 1.18200, dropping more than 6000 pips, and 1.18200 is an important support from the previous daily chart. The market's arrival here meets the conditions of "significant drop" and "testing an important support."

At this point, we switch the candlestick chart to the 1-hour level.The 1-hour chart has been consolidating at the bottom and has formed a bear trap with a fake breakout to the downside at the 1-hour level, which is the long-tailed doji within the blue rectangle in the chart. After the bear trap, the market broke above the high point, which is a signal to enter a long position. Subsequently, the market surged significantly, resulting in a daily chart bullish trend.

Additionally, it's important to note that not all major trends will exhibit these two patterns before they emerge. We are merely using these two technical methods to filter out some of the significant trends for trading. At the same time, when we use this method to filter opportunities, we will inevitably miss some trending markets, which is unavoidable.

However, to achieve profitability in trading, one must be willing to let go and gain. This is a subject that must be studied in trading. We should focus on the trends that belong to us, earn the money we should, and avoid the temptation to try to capture every market movement.

Leave a Comment

Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.